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US presidential election, 2008
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The United States presidential election of 2008, scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2008, will be the 56th consecutive quadrennial United States presidential election and will select the President of the United States and Vice President of the United States. The two major parties' candidates have not been officially chosen, but their presumptive nominees are John McCain, the senior United States Senator from Arizona, for the Republican Party and Barack Obama, the junior United States Senator from Illinois, for the Democratic Party. The 2008 election is particularly notable because it is the first time in U.S. history that two sitting senators will run against each other for president[1] and because it will be the first time an African American will be a presidential nominee for a major party.
The Libertarian Party has nominated former Congressman Bob Barr, the Constitution Party has nominated pastor and radio talk show host Chuck Baldwin, and the Green Party has nominated former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney. Ralph Nader declined to seek the Green Party nomination and is running as an independent candidate.
The election will coincide with the 2008 Senate elections in thirty-three states, House of Representatives elections in all states, and gubernatorial elections in eleven states, as well as various state referendums and local elections.
As in the 2004 presidential election, the allocation of electoral votes to each state will be based partially on the 2000 Census. The president-elect and vice president-elect are scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2009.
Characteristics
No incumbents
The 2008 election marks the first time since the 1928 election in which neither an incumbent president nor an incumbent vice president ran for their party's nomination in the presidential election,[2] and the first time since the 1952 election that neither the incumbent President nor incumbent Vice President is a candidate in the general election. The incumbent President, George W. Bush, is serving his second term and is barred from running again by the term limits in the 22nd Amendment to the United States Constitution. Vice President Dick Cheney has chosen not to seek the presidency.
Absence of Vice President
In the three previous two-term Presidential administrations — those of Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton — the incumbent vice president has immediately thereafter run for president. Richard Nixon lost the 1960 election, George H. W. Bush won the 1988 election, and Al Gore lost the 2000 election.[3][4] From 2001, Vice President Dick Cheney frequently stated he would never run for President: "I will say just as hard as I possibly know how to say... If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."[5] The 2008 election is the first in which the Vice President is not a candidate for either the presidency or the vice presidency since Nelson Rockefeller in 1976.
Leading candidates are senators
Following the June 3 Democratic primaries, the presumptive nominees for the major party nominations were both serving United States Senators: Republican candidate John McCain (Arizona) and Democratic candidate Barack Obama (Illinois). If this holds, it will be the first time in history that the two main opponents in the general election are both sitting Senators. Therefore, it appears virtually certain that the 2008 election will mark the first time since the election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 that a sitting Senator will be elected President of the United States, and only the third time ever in American history, after John F. Kennedy and Warren G. Harding.
Leading candidates' origins and age
Either candidate would become the first president born outside the Continental United States, as Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii and McCain was born at Coco Solo, Panama Canal Zone, a US naval base. A bipartisan legal review agreed that McCain is a natural-born citizen of the United States, a constitutional requirement to become president.[6] Obama, having a white mother and Kenyan father of the Luo ethnic group,[7] would be the first president to be black and to be biracial. McCain would be the first president from Arizona, while Obama would be the third president from Illinois, the first two being Abraham Lincoln and Ulysses S. Grant. The last candidates to run from these states were Adlai Stevenson (D) of Illinois, who ran and lost in 1952 and 1956, and Barry Goldwater (R) of Arizona, who ran and lost in 1964.
Also, if inaugurated on January 20, 2009, McCain would be the oldest U.S. president upon ascension to the presidency at age 72 years and 144 days,[8] and the second-oldest president to be inaugurated (Ronald Reagan was 73 years and 350 days old at his second inauguration).[9]
Barack Obama and John McCain are 24 years and 340 days apart in age. This is the largest age disparity between the two major party presidential candidates, surpassing Bill Clinton and Bob Dole (23 years and 28 days apart in age) who ran against each other in 1996.
Politicians abandon their parties
Former ambassador Alan Keyes, former Congressman Bob Barr, and Wayne Allyn Root left the Republican Party to join or seek the nomination of a third party. Keyes was defeated at the Constitution Party National Convention and is currently running as an independent, Bob Barr became the Libertarian Party nominee, and Root became Barr's running mate.
Former Congresswoman Cynthia McKinney and former Senator Mike Gravel left the Democratic Party to join or seek the nomination of a third party. McKinney won the nomination of the Green Party and Gravel lost his bid for the Libertarian nomination after being eliminated in the fourth round of voting.
Campaign
- See also: United States presidential election, 2008 timeline
Pre-primary campaign
"Front runner" status is dependent on the news agency reporting, but by October 2007, the consensus listed about six candidates as leading the pack. For example, CNN listed Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Rudolph Giuliani, Barack Obama, Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney as the front runners. The Washington Post listed Clinton, Edwards and Obama as the Democratic frontrunners, "leading in polls and fundraising and well ahead of the other major candidates".[10] MSNBC's Chuck Todd christened Giuliani and John McCain the Republican front runners after the second Republican presidential debate.[11]
Three candidates, Clinton, Obama, and Romney, raised over $20 million in the first three months of 2007, and three others, Edwards, Giuliani, and McCain, raised over $12 million; the next closest candidate was Bill Richardson, who raised over $6 million.[12] In the third quarter of 2007, the top four GOP fund raisers were Romney, Giuliani, Thompson, and Ron Paul.[13] Paul set the GOP record for the largest online single day fund raising on November 5, 2007.[14] Hillary Clinton set the Democratic record for largest single day fund raising on June 30, 2007.[15]
Primaries and caucuses
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Although the nomination process for each of the two major political parties technically continues through June, in previous cycles the candidates have been effectively chosen by the March primaries. This trend continued in 2008 on the Republican side, with John McCain locking up the nomination with victories in Texas and Ohio on March 4, but Democrat Barack Obama did not win the nomination until June 3, after a long campaign against Hilary Clinton. Obama has a wide lead in states won, but Democratic state delegate contests have been decided by a form of proportional representation since 1976.[16] Clinton claimed a lead in the popular vote, but the Associated Press found her numbers accurate only in one very close scenario.[17]
During late 2007, both parties adopted rules against states moving their primaries to an earlier date in the year. For the Republicans, the penalty for this violation is supposed to be the loss of half the state party's delegates to the convention. The Democratic Party only allowed four states to hold elections before February 5, 2008. Initially the Democratic Party leadership said it would strip all Democratic delegates from Florida and Michigan, which had moved their primaries all the way into January. All major candidates agreed officially not to campaign in Florida or Michigan, and Edwards and Obama had their names removed from the Michigan ballot. Clinton won a majority of delegates from both states (though 40 percent voted uncommitted) and subsequently led a fight to fully seat the Florida and Michigan delegates. [18]
Political columnist Christopher Weber notes that while this was self-serving, it was also pragmatic on the part of Clinton should Florida or Michigan voters have not voted for Democrats in the general election based on the Democratic Party's decision regarding the seating of delegates. [19] This led to speculation that the fight over the delegates could last until the convention in August. However, on May 31, 2008, a deal was reached by the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the Democratic Party that allows for delegates from Michigan and Florida to receive half a vote each. [20]
January 2008
Around the start of the year, support for Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama began rising in the polls, passing longtime front runners Romney and Clinton for first place in Iowa: the two upstart campaigns were triumphant. Suddenly John McCain displaced Rudy Giuliani and Romney as the front-runner in New Hampshire.
While Huckabee had little money and was hoping for a third place finish, Obama was the new front runner in New Hampshire and the Clinton campaign was struggling. However, in a turning point for her campaign, Clinton's voice wavered with emotion in a public interview broadcast live on TV.[21] By the end of that day, Clinton won the primary by 2 points, contrary to the predictions of pollsters who had her as much as twelve points behind on the day of the primary itself. McCain also staged a turnaround victory, having been written off by the pundits and in single digits less than a month before.[22]
With the Republicans stripping Michigan and Florida of half their delegates, the Republican race was based there, while the Democrats focused on Nevada and South Carolina, which were given special permission to have early contests. In South Carolina Obama got 55% of the vote. Meanwhile, McCain managed a small victory in South Carolina, setting him up for a larger and more important victory in Florida soon after.
February 2008
On February 3 on the UCLA campus, celebrities Oprah Winfrey, Caroline Kennedy and Stevie Wonder, among others, made appearances to show support for Barack Obama in a rally led by Michelle Obama.[23] Obama trailed in the California polling by an average of 6.0%; he ended up losing California by 8.3%.[24] Some analysts cited a large Latino turnout as the deciding factor.[25] On the Republican side, John McCain was endorsed by California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Rudy Giuliani (who had dropped out of the race following the Florida primary), giving McCain a significant boost in the state.[26] Schwarzenegger's wife, Maria Shriver, endorsed Obama.[27]
By February 4, it was apparent that McCain might be able to wrap up the nomination quickly, while the Democratic candidates were hoping for a swing of momentum following the February 5th primaries.
Super Tuesday: On February 5, 2008, the largest-ever simultaneous number of state U.S. presidential primary elections was held.[28] Twenty-four states and American Samoa held either caucuses or primary elections for one or both parties on this date, leaving the Democrats in a virtual tie, and John McCain just short of clinching the Republican nod.[29] A few days later, Mitt Romney suspended his presidential campaign and endorsed McCain[30], leaving Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul as the only major challengers of McCain in the remaining Republican primaries.
Louisiana and Washington voted for both parties on February 9, while Nebraska and the U.S. Virgin Islands voted for the Democrats and Kansas voted for the Republicans. Obama swept all four Democratic contests, as well as the Maine caucuses the next day,[31] and Huckabee also came out on top in Kansas, winning by an even greater percentage. The District of Columbia, Maryland and Virginia voted for both parties on February 12 in the so-called Potomac primary. Obama won all three for the Democrats (giving him eight consecutive victories after Super Tuesday) and McCain took all three for the Republicans.
Obama carried both Hawaii and Wisconsin, the last two states that voted for the Democrats in February, on the 19th.[32] Wisconsin and Washington (primary) voted for the Republicans on February 19; John McCain won these states.[32] The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico closed February for the Republicans, on the 23rd and 24th.
March 2008
For the Republicans, on March 1 American Samoa voted. March 4 was dubbed by some as this year's Mini Tuesday,[33] when the delegate-rich states of Texas and Ohio, along with Rhode Island and Vermont, voted for both parties. Wyoming then voted for the Democrats and Guam voted for the Republicans on March 8. Mississippi voted on March 11.
On March 4, Hillary Clinton carried Ohio and Rhode Island in the Democratic primaries; some considered this a surprise upset,[34] though she led in the polling averages in both states.[35][36] She also carried the primary in Texas, but Obama won the Texas caucuses held the same day and netted more delegates from the state than Clinton.[37] John McCain clinched the Republican nomination after sweeping all four primaries, Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, putting him over the top of the 1,191 delegates required to win the GOP nomination.[36] Mike Huckabee conceded the race to McCain, leaving Ron Paul, who had just 16 delegates, as his only remaining opponent for the Republican nomination.[38] In the Wyoming Democratic caucuses, Obama edged out Clinton to gain 7 delegates to her 5, and three days later he beat her again, 59%–39%, in Mississippi.
April through June 2008
Only one state voted in April: Pennsylvania, which held a primary for both parties on April 22. Hillary Clinton won this Democratic primary, with approximately 55% of the vote. Barack Obama won the Guam caucuses on May 3 by 7 votes out of more than 4,500. On May 6, Hillary Clinton won the Indiana primary with 51% of the vote while Barack Obama won in North Carolina with 56% of the vote. Nebraska's Republican and West Virginia's Democratic primaries were held on May 13. In West Virginia, Clinton won with 67% of the vote and 20 of 28 pledged delegates. On May 20, Kentucky and Oregon held primaries for both parties. In Kentucky, Clinton won with 65% of the vote to Obama's 31%. In Oregon, Obama defeated Clinton, by a margin of 18%. Idaho voted for Republicans only on May 27. On May 31, Democratic Party officials, after a tense meeting between Clinton supporters and Obama backers, voted to seat all of Florida and Michigan's delegates at the party's convention, with each getting a half-vote.[39] Puerto Rico held a Democratic primary on June 1, which Clinton won with 68% of the vote to Obama's 32%.[40] The primary season ended on June 3, with contests in New Mexico (Republican), Montana (Democratic), and South Dakota (both parties). Clinton won South Dakota's primary, while Obama was victorious in the Montana primary. As expected, John McCain won all the states during this time period handily, though typically 20-25% of the vote in the Republican primaries went to Huckabee and Paul, despite the fact both had already been mathematically eliminated from contention for the nomination.
Party conventions
- April 23-26, 2008: 2008 Constitution Party National Convention held in Kansas City, Missouri.
- May 23-26, 2008: 2008 Libertarian National Convention, held in Denver, Colorado.
- July 10-13, 2008: 2008 Green Party National Convention, held in Chicago, Illinois.
- July 18-20, 2008: 2008 Reform Party National Convention, held in Dallas, Texas.
- August 25-28, 2008: 2008 Democratic National Convention, to be held in Denver, Colorado.
- September 1-4, 2008: 2008 Republican National Convention, to be held in Saint Paul, Minnesota.
Debates
Election day through to Inauguration
- November 4, 2008: Election Day in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Voters cast votes for listed Presidential candidates but are actually selecting their state's slate of Electoral College members.
- December 15, 2008: Members of the U.S. Electoral College meet in each state to cast their votes for President and Vice President.
- January 6, 2009: Electoral votes officially tallied before both Houses of Congress. If a member of Congress wishes to object to the certification of a state's electoral votes as was originally reported on Election Night, he or she must do so at this point, even if recounts or lawsuits to require a recount are already in progress.
- January 20, 2009: Inauguration Day.
Candidates
- See also: List of candidates in the United States presidential election, 2008
- See also: Comparison of United States presidential candidates, 2008
Major parties
- Further information: Political parties in the United States
Democratic Party
For a more complete list, see Democratic Party (United States) presidential candidates, 2008
Presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party:
Obama has won sufficient delegates to guarantee him the nomination and is therefore the presumptive nominee.[42] He is also the nominee of the United Citizens Party in South Carolina.[43]
2008 Democratic presidential primaries delegate count
As of June 10, 2008
| Candidate |
Actual
pledged delegates1
(3,253 of 3,909 total) |
Predicted
pledged delegates2
(3,409 of 3,909 total) |
Estimated
superdelegates2
(694 of 825 total) |
Estimated total delegates2
(4,103 of 4,934 total;
2,118 needed to win) |
| Barack Obama |
1,661 |
1,763 |
438 |
2,201 |
| Hillary Rodham Clinton |
1,592 |
1,640 |
256 |
1,896 |
| John Edwards |
– |
6 |
– |
6 |
| Color key |
1st place Candidate has suspended her campaign Candidate has withdrawn his campaign
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Sources:
1 "Primary Season Election Results", The New York Times ((regularly updated)).
2 "Election Center 2008 Primaries and Caucuses: Results: Democratic Scorecard", CNN ((regularly updated)). |
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Republican Party
For a more complete list, see Republican Party (United States) presidential candidates, 2008
Presumptive nominee for the Republican Party:
McCain has won sufficient delegates to guarantee him the nomination and is therefore the presumptive nominee.[44]
2008 Republican presidential primaries delegate count
As of June 10, 2008
| Candidates |
Actual
pledged delegates1
(1,780 of 1,917) |
Estimated total delegates2
(2,159 of 2,380;
1,191 needed to win) |
| John McCain |
1,378 |
1,575 |
| Mike Huckabee |
240 |
278 |
| Mitt Romney |
148 |
271 |
| Ron Paul |
14 |
35 |
|
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| Color key: |
|
1st place |
Candidate has
withdrawn |
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Sources:
1 "Primary Season Election Results", The New York Times ((regularly updated)).
2 "Election Center 2008 - Republican Delegate Scorecard", CNN ((regularly updated)).
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Other parties
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Boston Tea Party
Nominee for the Boston Tea Party:
Charles Jay of Florida, 2004 Presidential nominee of the Personal Choice Party, was selected as the nominee for President of the United States at the online Convention of the Boston Tea Party June 15-16, 2008.
- Thomas L. Knapp of Missouri, blogger and editor of the online magazine Rational Review, is the vice-presidential nominee.
Constitution Party
Nominee for the Constitution Party:
Chuck Baldwin of Florida, pastor, political activist and 2004 Constitution Party vice presidential nominee, received the presidential nomination of the Constitution Party at its national convention in Kansas City, Missouri on April 26, 2008.
- Darrell Castle of Tennessee, activist, attorney, and former Marine Corps Lieutenant is the vice-presidential nominee.
Green Party
Nominee for the Green Party:
Cynthia McKinney, former Democratic Congresswoman from Georgia, was chosen as the Green Party's nominee for President at that party's National Convention in Chicago on July 12, 2008. She also received the endorsement of the Workers World Party in July.[45]
Libertarian Party
Nominee for the Libertarian Party:
Bob Barr, former Republican Congressman from Georgia was chosen as the Libertarian Party's nominee for President, at the Libertarian Party National Convention in Denver, Colorado on May 25, 2008.
Prohibition Party
Nominee for the Prohibition Party:
Gene Amondson of Washington, minister and temperance movement activist, received the Prohibition Party's presidential nomination at its national convention on September 13, 2007.
Reform Party
Nominee for the Reform Party:
Ted Weill of Mississippi was selected as the presidential nominee of the Reform Party at its National convention on July 20, 2008 in Dallas, Texas.
- Frank McEnulty of California is the vice-presidential nominee.
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Nominee for the Party for Socialism and Liberation:
Gloria La Riva of California, was announced as the presidential nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation in January 2008.
Socialist Party USA
Nominee for the Socialist Party USA:
Brian Moore of Florida received the Socialist Party USA's presidential nomination at its national convention, October 19-21, 2007 in St. Louis, Missouri. He is also the nominee of Liberty Union Party of Vermont.
Socialist Workers Party
Nominee for the Socialist Workers Party:
Róger Calero of New York, journalist, was announced as the presidential nominee of the Socialist Workers Party in January 2008.
Independents
- See Independent (United States) presidential candidates, 2008
America's Independent Party
Nominee for the America's Independent Party:
Alan Keyes, former U.S. ambassador, of Maryland. After unsuccessful attempts to secure the 2008 nominations of the Republican and Constitution parties, Keyes announced his intention to run as the nominee of the newly formed America's Independent Party, and as an independent in states where the party does not have ballot status.
- Wiley Drake, pastor and radio announcer, of California is Keyes' running mate.[46]
Independence Party
Nominee for the Independence Party:
Ralph Nader, consumer advocate, of Connecticut. The two time (1996, 2000) presidential nominee of the Green Party and 2004 independent presidential candidate announced his candidacy for another independent bid in February 2008.
Possible electoral college changes
National Popular Vote Interstate Compact
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The Compact, if passed by states representing a controlling majority of the electoral college, would require states cast their electoral votes for the national popular winner, essentially shifting the election to a popular vote. As of May 2008, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, and New Jersey have enacted the law,[47][48] representing 50 of the required 270 votes for the Compact to take effect.[49]
District of Columbia House Voting Rights Act
In 2007, Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-District of Columbia) introduced the "DC House Voting Rights Act" in the U.S. House of Representatives.[50] If enacted, the act would have the effect of increasing the size of the electoral college by one. The bill's primary purpose is to give House representation to the District of Columbia, alongside an additional electoral college vote award to Utah in order to balance the addition. The effect is valid only until the next census, when the extra seat will be reapportioned like all other seats. The likely outcome of the change, if enacted, on the 2008 presidential election would be to give a +1 advantage to the Republican candidate: Utah has not been carried by a Democratic presidential candidate since the 1964 election, and in the most recent election gave the Republican 71% of the vote. Even though the size of the electoral college would increase to 539, a candidate would still need 270 electoral votes to win. The bill has not been brought back up for vote discussion since it was nearly clotured in September 2007.
Presidential Election Reform Act (California)
- Further information: Presidential Election Reform Act
There was a proposed initiative in the state of California to alter the way the state's electoral votes for president are distributed among presidential candidates, but the initiative failed to get onto the 2008 ballot.[51]
Potential battleground states
Political experts have identified certain swing states where close votes might prove crucial to the outcome of the election.[52] These states may include, but are certainly not limited to:
- Electoral College votes in parentheses
- Colorado: (9) The Centennial State is holding its second Democratic National Convention in Denver after 100 years. The election of Ken Salazar, a Hispanic-American to the U.S. Senate; Bill Ritter to the Governorship in 2006 and a U.S. House seat pick-up in 2006 made it a prized apple for the Democrats, prompting DNC Chairman Howard Dean to claim that the West holds the key to victory in 2008, which effectively made Denver the location of the Convention.
In Florida, from February 2008 to present, McCain's lead in the polls has decreased from an average of about 9% to about 2% with undecided voters making up about 11% to 13% of the total. [53]data
A strong Hispanic-American concentration and the attention brought to bear on such issues as immigration reform, labor union support and minimum wage have made this a possible Democratic state. Recent polls show Colorado as a toss-up.[54]
- Florida: (27) The key player in 2000, whose votes went — narrowly and controversially — to George W. Bush, making him the effective winner. Experts agree that the winner of Florida will have a significant advantage towards advancing to the White House. Florida has trended toward the Republican Party since 2000. For Democrats, the vote of the elderly is seen as a potential boon, due to the party's traditional stance on Medicare and Social Security (two key components of winning the elderly vote), while Republicans have an advantage with their stance on tax cuts and values issues. The Hispanic and African American populations in Florida could also give the Democrats an edge in a close race. For Republicans, the business attention of tax cuts and Cuban-American attention has made it a strong contender. Current polls show McCain with a slight average lead in Florida.[55]
In Indiana, from February 2008 until June 2008, McCain's 9% lead in the polls was reduced to a tie. From early June to present, Obama's lead in the polls has increased to an average of about 1% to 2%. During this period, undecided voters made up an average of about 7% to 11% of the total. [56]data
- Indiana: (11) The state has not voted for a Democratic Presidential Nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, but a poll shows a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican in the Presidential election 37%-32%.[57] Another poll by the Indianapolis Star showed the War in Iraq and the sluggish economy to be the biggest issues among Hoosiers. Also, the poll found that a Democratic ticket featuring Indiana Senator Evan Bayh would boost the possibility of Indiana switching alliances.[58] Current polls show Indiana as a pure toss-up.[59] In 2006, Democrats won three house seats here. Another factor that may drag down the Republican ticket might be Governor Mitch Daniels, who has had relatively low poll numbers recently. Also in 2006, Democrats gained control of the Indiana House.
- Iowa: (7) Iowa is a true toss up state; it went for Gore in 2000 and Bush in 2004. In 2006, Democrats retained control of the Governor's Mansion with the addition of two U.S. House seats and the election of Chet Culver as governor, another potential running mate for the Democratic nominee. Also, for the first time in four decades, Democrats gained complete control of the state legislature, further enhancing the progress of the Democrats. Still, agriculture policies and conservative values make it a magnet for the Republicans. Current polls show Barack Obama with a sizable lead in Iowa.[60]
In Michigan, from February 2008 to present, Obama's lead in the polls has increased from a virtual tie to about 5% to 6% with undecided voters making up an average of about 14% of the total. [61]data
- Michigan: (17) The Great Lakes State has been a fairly safe bet for the Democrats in recent decades, giving its substantial electoral votes to Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and John Kerry. However, with each election, the margin of victory has narrowed, opening a window for the Republicans. Populism and a historically strong labor movement have dominated the state and given Democrats an advantage, but Republicans have gained ground in advancing tax cuts and other social issues appealing to "Reagan Democrats". A population exodus from Democratic Detroit has made the conservative Republican west more influential. Still, Democratic governor Jennifer Granholm was soundly re-elected in 2006 despite the state having the highest unemployment rate in the country on her watch. Current polls show Michigan with a slight Obama lead[62]
In Missouri, from February 2008 to present, McCain's lead in the polls has decreased from an average of about 6% to about 1% to 2% with undecided voters making up about 11% of the total. [63]data
- Missouri: (11) The Show Me State has been long been dubbed the bellwether for the nation because historically it has correlated very closely with the national Zeitgeist – with the single exception of 1956, Missouri has supported the winner of every Presidential election since 1904. The home state of President Harry Truman leans slightly Republican, and granted its 11 electoral votes to Bush in both 2000 and 2004. Despite the relative strength of Republicans in this Midwestern state, it has a strong penchant for advancing populist causes such as stem cell research and universal health care. In 2006, Missouri elected its first female U.S. Senator in Democrat Claire McCaskill. Moreover, the national mood souring over the war in Iraq and a contentious gubernatorial election with a Democratic favorite in Jay Nixon make this state a strong possibility for the Democrats. Current polls show John McCain with a slight average lead in Missouri. [64]
- Nevada: (5) Although Nevada has historically leaned Republican, the high concentration of labor unions and Hispanic-American vote make it a potential battleground state. (Its 2006 Gubernatorial election was particularly competitive, and Republican Jim Gibbons won only by a slim margin.) The Las Vegas metropolitan area with its dramatic increase in population has become an attractive destination for Democratic campaign resources, and Republicans are buoyed by the strong disapproval ratings of Gibbons (29% approval rating as of March 2007) and Bush (34% approval rating as of March 2007).[65] Furthermore, Nevada has, with the single exception of 1976, been won by the victor of every US Presidential election since 1912, a record which makes it a secondary bellwether state. A current poll shows McCain with a slight lead in Nevada. [66]
- New Hampshire: (4) Once very reliably Republican, New Hampshire became a swing state in the 1990s. Republicans still have somewhat of an edge in statewide elections, however the Democrats took control of the state legislature and both Congressional seats in 2006. The New Hampshire Republican Party tends to be more socially liberal than the national party, and as a result their behavior in national elections is harder to determine. New Hampshire was the only state in the nation that went for Bush in 2000 and then for Kerry in 2004, although by narrow margins both times. Current polls show New Hampshire with a slight Obama lead.[67]
- New Mexico: (5) New Mexico has been long eschewed as a nominal state, but that thinking has changed dramatically. With elections being heavily contested and victories being decided by two or three states, New Mexico has become one of the centers of political fighting. In 2000, Gore won by a razor-thin margin and in 2004, Bush won by a small, yet safe margin. These results have made experts conclude that New Mexico's five electoral votes, even though small in calculation, could tip the balance. New Mexico's large Hispanic and Native American populations tend to vote Democrat, and could be the key for a Democratic candidate in a close race.
In Ohio, from February 2008 until mid-April 2008, McCain's 2% to 3% lead in the polls was reduced to a tie. From mid-April to present, Obama's lead in the polls has increased to an average of about 3% to 4%. During this period, undecided voters made up an average of about 12% to 13% of the total. [68]data
Its penchant for populist streaks have made it an attraction for the Democrats, and Governor Bill Richardson was a contender for the 2008 nomination, and has been widely speculated as a vice presidential candidate.
- Ohio: (20) "I think 2008 is very likely to be a hotly contested race in Ohio," stated Eric Rademacher, director of the University of Cincinnati's Ohio Poll, for the Cincinnati Enquirer.[69] Its 20 electoral votes were critical to President Bush's reelection in 2004, and their tally was close enough to be contested. In 2006, Ohio voters elected Democrats Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown for Governor and U.S. Senator, respectively. Current polls show McCain with a slight average lead in Ohio. [70]
- Pennsylvania: (21) Pennsylvania Secretary of the Commonwealth Pedro A. Cortés stated on March 17, 2007, that "The commonwealth’s large number of electoral college votes and diverse population make Pennsylvania a key battleground state."[71] Pennsylvania has leaned Democratic since 1992, giving its electoral votes to Bill Clinton (1992 and 1996), Gore (2000) and Kerry (2004). President Bush visited the state more than 40 times during his 2004 campaign.[72] Current polls show Barack Obama with a sizable lead in Pennsylvania.[73]
In Virginia, from February 2008 until mid-May 2008, McCain's 6% lead in the polls was reduced to a tie. From mid-May to present, Obama's lead in the polls has increased to an average of about 2%. During this period, undecided voters made up an average of about 5% to 11% of the total. [74] data
- Virginia: (13) No Democratic presidential candidate has won Virginia since Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964, and it was the only Southern state that went Republican in 1976. Virginia is no longer as reliably Republican as it once was, as evidenced by Democrat Tim Kaine's winning the Governor's Mansion in 2005 and Jim Webb's narrow victory in the 2006 Senate race against incumbent Republican George Allen. Additionally, Northern Virginia, the fastest-growing region in the state also is part of the Baltimore-Washington Metropolitan Area the second highest income metropolitan area in the country, tends to lean Democratic. Virginia also has a large African American population, which could benefit a Democratic candidate in a close race. Unique political timing may come into play in Virginia in 2008, as popular former governor and Democrat Mark Warner is running for the Senate in 2008 for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner (no relation). His popularity (and widely-expected victory in November) could be a significant asset to the Democratic presidential candidate in Virginia. This notion is supported by a September 2007 Rasmussen Reports poll in which Mark Warner leads former Republican governor Jim Gilmore 54% to 34%. Current polls show Virginia as a pure toss-up.[75]
- Wisconsin: (10) Among the closest states in the nation, Wisconsin very narrowly went to Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004. These two results were much closer than the results in prior elections, so it could be possible Wisconsin is trending Republican in presidential elections, though John Kerry won by a slightly larger margin than Gore in 2000. Current polls show Barack Obama with a sizable lead in Wisconsin.[76]
- Individual congressional districts
- Maine, 2nd Congressional District (1): The Second Congressional District is more competitive than the state at-large or the First Congressional District, which are safely Democratic.
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