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Oil price increases of 2004-2007
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- Further information: Gasoline usage and pricing and Price of petroleum
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. During 2004, the price rose above $40, then $50. A series of events led the price to exceed $60 by August 11, 2005, briefly exceed $75 in the middle of 2006, fall back to $60/barrel by the early part of 2007, then rise steeply to $92/barrel by October 2007 and $99.29/barrel for December futures in New York on November 21, 2007.[1] Throughout the first half of 2008, oil regularly reached record high prices. On February 29, 2008, oil prices peaked at $103.05 per barrel,[2] and reached $110.20 on March 12, 2008,[3] the sixth record in seven trading days.[4][5] Prices on June 27, 2008, touched $141.71/barrel, for August delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange (after the recent $140.56/barrel), amid Libya's threat to cut output, and OPEC's president predicted prices may reach $170 by the Northern summer.[6][7] The most recent price per barrel maximum of $147.02 was reached on July 11, 2008.[8]
Prices near $95–105 per barrel (2007 U.S. dollars) are equal to the previous all time inflation adjusted record of 1980.[9] This had been clearly exceeded by the first quarter of 2008. In terms of the crude price, U.S. records suggest that equivalent prices were last seen in the 1860s[10]. In terms of refined petroleum products, one has to go back to the early 1920s to find similar prices in real terms[11]. Outside the U.S., the history of both inflation and oil prices will be different, but the fact remains that after being inflation adjusted, prices over $120/barrel are unprecedented since the very earliest days of commercial oil production. Sustained high prices contribute to fears of an economic recession similar to that of the early 1980s.[12] In the United States, gasoline consumption dropped by 0.5% in the first two months of 2008 in response to higher prices,[13] compared to a drop of 0.4% total in 2007.[14]
Commentators have attributed the price increases of this period to a confluence of factors, including reports from the United States Department of Energy and others showing a decline in petroleum reserves,[15] worries over peak oil,[16] Middle East tension, and oil price speculation.[17] Some events have had short term effects on oil prices, such as North Korean missile launches,[18] the crisis between Israel and Lebanon,[19] tension between Iran and U.S.,[20] and "a hundred factors."[21]
Possible Causes
Oil price trend, 1861–2007, both nominal and adjusted to inflation.
Detailed analysis of changes in oil price from 1970–2007. The graph is based on the nominal, not real, price of oil.
Demand
World crude oil demand grew an average of 1.76% per year from 1994 to 2006, with a high of 3.4% in 2003-2004. Demand growth is highest in the developing world.[22] World demand for oil is projected to increase 37% over 2006 levels by 2030, according to the U.S.-based Energy Information Administration's (EIA) annual report. Demand is projected to reach 118 million barrels per day (18.8×106 m3/d) from 2006's 86 million barrels (13.7×106 m3), driven in large part by the transportation sector.[23][24]
As countries develop, industry, rapid urbanization and higher living standards drive up energy use, most often of oil. Thriving economies such as China and India are quickly becoming large oil consumers.[25] China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002, doubling from 1996-2006,[22] indicating a doubling rate of less than 10 years. A 2008 report from the IEA predicted that the observed drops in demand from developed countries would continue due to high prices, but that a 3.7 percent rise in demand by 2013 in developing countries would cause a net rise in global petroleum demand.[26]
The sector that generally sees the highest annual growth in petroleum demand is transportation, in the form of new demand for personal-use vehicles powered by internal combustion engines.[27] Cars and trucks will cause almost 75% of the increase in oil consumption by India and China between 2001 and 2025.[28] As more countries develop, the demand for oil will increase further. This sector also has the highest consumption rates, accounting for approximately 68.9% of the oil used in the United States in 2006,[29] and 55% of oil use worldwide as documented in the Hirsch report. In 2008, auto sales in China were expected to grow by as much as 15-20 percent, resulting in part from economic growth rates of over 10 percent for 5 years in a row.[30]
Another large factor on petroleum demand has been human population growth. Because world population grew faster than oil production, production per capita peaked in 1979 (preceded by a plateau during the period of 1973-1979).[31] The world’s population in 2030 is expected to be double that of 1980.[32]
The role of fuel subsidies
State fuel subsidies have shielded consumers in many nations from the price rises, but many of these subsidies are being reduced or removed as the cost to governments of subsidization increases.
In June 2008, AFP reported that "China became the latest Asian nation to curb energy subsidies last week after hiking retail petrol and diesel prices as much as 18 percent... Elsewhere in Asia, Malaysia has hiked fuel prices by 41 percent and Indonesia by around 29 percent, while Taiwan and India have also raised their energy costs."[33] In the same month, Reuters reported that
Countries like China and India, along with Gulf nations whose retail oil prices are kept below global prices, contributed 61 percent of the increase in global consumption of crude oil from 2000 to 2006, according to JPMorgan. Other than Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, most Asian nations subsidize domestic fuel prices. The more countries subsidize them, the less likely high oil prices will have any affect in reducing overall demand, forcing governments in weaker financial situations to surrender first and stop their subsidies. That is what happened over the past two weeks. Indonesia, Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, India, and Malaysia have either raised regulated fuel prices or pledged that they will.[34]
The Economist reported: "Half of the world's population enjoys fuel subsidies. This estimate, from Morgan Stanley, implies that almost a quarter of the world's petrol is sold at less than the market price."[35] U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman stated that around 30 million barrels per day of oil consumption (over a third of the global total) is subsidized.[33] But energy analyst Jeff Vail warned that cutting subsidies would do little to reduce global prices.[36]
Supply
An important contributor to price increases has been the slow down in oil supply growth, which has continued since oil production surpassed new discoveries in 1980. The fact that global oil production will decline at some point, leading to lower supply is the main long-term fundamental cause of rising prices.[37] This is because there is a limited amount of fossil fuel, and the remaining accessible supply is consumed more rapidly each year. Increasingly, remaining reserves become more technically difficult to extract and therefore more expensive. Eventually, reserves will only be economically feasible to extract at extremely high prices. It is thought by many, including energy economists such as Matthew Simmons, that prices could continue to rise indefinitely until a new market equilibrium is reached at which point supply satisfies worldwide demand.
Although there is contention about the exact timing and form of peak oil, there are now very few parties who do not acknowledge that the concept of a production peak is valid – though before the present energy crisis some commentators argued that global warming awareness and new energy sources means that demand may fall before supply, making reserve depletion a non-issue.[38]
In addition, turbulence in the Middle East (the world's largest oil-producing region) has led to decreased exports, especially civil unrest in Iraq after the 2003 U.S. invasion. Outside the Middle East, Venezuela has experienced strikes and political turbulence, and there is growing instability in West Africa.
Alternatively, lower production rates may be due to the fact that oil's historically high ratio of Energy Returned on Energy Invested continues a significant decline. The increased price of oil also makes other, non-conventional sources of oil attractive to businesses. The most prominent example of this are the massive reserves of the Canadian tar sands. They are a far less cost-efficient source of heavy, low-grade oil than conventional crude, but with oil trading above $60/bbl, the tar sands have become very attractive to exploration and production companies. Recent months have seen billions of dollars invested in the tar (bitumen) sands.
In view of tighter supplies worldwide, terrorist and insurgent groups have increasingly targeted oil and gas installations to maximize both mayhem and political gainscitation needed. Sometimes, such attacks are perpetrated by militias in regions where oil wealth has produced few tangible benefits for the local citizenry, as is the case in the Niger Delta. The terror factor adds an additional premium, including insurance costs, to the price of oil.[39]
Even if total oil supply does not decline, increasing numbers of experts believe the easily accessible sources of light sweet crude are almost exhausted and in the future the world will depend on more expensive sources of heavy oil and renewable energy sources. Until the rises of 2008, CERA (a consulting company wholly owned by energy consultants IHS Energy[40]) did not believe this would be such an immediate problem. However, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Daniel Yergin, best known for his quotes that the price of oil would soon return down to "normal", publicly amended the company's position on May 7, 2008, and now expects oil to reach $150 during 2008, due to tightness of supply[41] This reversal of opinion is significant, as CERA, among other consultancies, provide price projections that are used by many official bodies to plan long term strategy in respect of energy mix and price, so the impact of a misprediction is far wider than might otherwise be expected. In contrast, some other organisations, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), had already been much less optimistic in their assessments for some time.[42]
While efforts are underway to increase supply, for example through a number of new mines in Canada's tar sands region which is estimated to contain as much "heavy" oil as all the world's reserves of "conventional" oil,citation needed such efforts lag behind the increasing demand of recent years.[43] Regulation and environmental efforts have also increased the shortage and price of oil.citation needed
Financial causes
Financial speculation
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The factual accuracy of this section is disputed.
Please see the relevant discussion on the talk page. |
In May 2008, Uwe Beckmeyer, transport chief for Germany's Social Democrats, said a recent 25 percent rise in the price of oil to $135 a barrel had nothing to do with underlying supply and demand; "It's pure speculation," he said.[44]
Also in May 2008, The Economist pointed out that "The number of transactions involving oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the biggest market for oil, has almost tripled since 2004. That neatly mirrors a tripling of the price of oil over the same period"[45]; however the article goes on to point out that the increased investment might be following rising prices, rather than causing them, and points to the example of nickel that has halved in value between May 2007 and May 2008 despite significant speculative interest. It also reminds readers "Investment can flood into the oil market without driving up prices because speculators are not buying any actual crude. Instead, they buy contracts for future delivery. When those contracts mature, they either settle them with a cash payment or sell them on to genuine consumers. Either way, no oil is hoarded or somehow kept off the market."[45] The Economist also pointed out, "the prices of several commodities that are not traded on any exchange, and are therefore much harder for speculators to invest in, have risen even faster than that of oil."[45]
In May 2008, hedge fund manager Michael Masters testified to a U.S. Senate committee about his belief that "What we are experiencing is a demand shock coming from a new category of participant in the commodities futures markets: Institutional Investors... In the popular press the explanation given most often for rising oil prices is the increased demand for oil from China. According to the DOE, annual Chinese demand for petroleum has increased over the last five years from 1.88 billion barrels to 2.8 billion barrels, an increase of 920 million barrels. Over the same five-year period, Index Speculatorsʼ demand for petroleum futures has increased by 848 million barrels. The increase in demand from Index Speculators is almost equal to the increase in demand from China!"[46]
In June 2008, The Wall Street Journal wrote: "Lehman Brothers cites evidence that institutional investors, including sovereign-wealth funds, have been increasing their exposure to commodities. The investment house calculates that from January 2006 to mid-April 2008, more than $90 billion of incremental investor flows was devoted to assets under management by commodity indexes. It said for every $100 million in new inflows, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, increased by 1.6%."[47]
Also in June 2008, analyst Theodore Butler wrote that the rise in prices since the credit crunch began in August 2007 was primarily due to short sellers buying back futures contracts so as to minimize their losses. "The index funds are holding the same size, or smaller, long position in crude oil than they held 10 months ago, when crude oil was $70/barrel... The buying back of previously sold short futures contracts, primarily in the commercial category, account for the bulk of the buying over the past eight months or so."[48]
Also in June 2008, OPEC's Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri provided statistics supporting rampant speculation in the oil-related financial markets. According to Badri, current world consumption of oil at 87 million bpd is far exceeded by the "paper market" for oil, which equals about 1.36 billion bpd, or more than 15 times the actual market demand.[49]
In response to the possibility that financial speculators artificially inflated the oil market, the U.S. Congress began hearings in June 2008 intended to find ways to "tighten restrictions on pension funds, investment banks and other investors that they say are driving up fuel prices."[50]
On June 17, 2008, Iranian OPEC governor Mohammad-Ali Khatibi described the oil market as saturated and warned that an increase in production from Saudi Arabia would be "wrong". Refiners stated that it is Saudi Arabia's traditionally high prices which make its crude noncompetitive. Prior to this, OPEC had stated that the oil market was well supplied and that high prices were a result of speculation and a weak U.S. dollar.[51]
On June 21, 2008, U.S. energy secretary Samuel Bodman said that insufficient oil production, not financial speculation, was driving soaring crude prices. He said that oil production has not kept pace with growing demand, especially from developing countries like China and India. "In the absence of any additional crude supply, for every 1% of crude demand, we will expect a 20% increase in price in order to balance the market," Bodman said.[52][53]
Effect of U.S. dollar value on oil prices
The price of oil is closely tied to the value of the U.S. dollar because oil is traded in dollars. This has led to concern among some economists that the principal earned from the sale of oil may lose value in the long run if the U.S. dollar loses real value.citation needed
In discussing the effect of the changing value of the U.S. dollar on the real price of oil, however, it is important to include a calculation of effective exchange rates of the currencies in question, to separate the real and nominal values of those currencies. This method accounts for the amount that a dollar can buy (of electronics or food for example) compared to the amount another currency, such as a Euro or pound sterling, can purchase. While the U.S. dollar has lost nominal value to other major currencies from 2001 to 2007, its change in real value has not differed significantly from other currencies.[54]
In addition, by comparing the price of oil in various currencies to the fluctuations in the exchange rates of those currencies it is clear that oil price is no more significantly correlated to the value of the dollar than to any other currency. This also holds true in a comparison of oil price to gold price.[55] Similarly, since the early 1970s, the price of oil has been negatively correlated to the value of the dollar, suggesting that the price of oil has more of an effect on the value of the dollar than vice versa. As developed economies depend heavily on oil for transportation, petrochemical feedstock, and industrial agriculture, this correlation would affect most currency values.[56]
Some analysts believe that as much as $25 of the June 2008 prices around $140 are due to dollar devaluation.[57]
Monetary inflation
- Further information: Inflation
The Austrian School of economics holds that price inflation derives from monetary inflation, and its advocates, such as the Ludwig von Mises Institute and congressman Ron Paul, argue that loose monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and other central banks is a major contributor to the increase in oil prices, and the cause of both commodity speculation and dollar devaluation.[58][59]
Other causes
Besides supply concerns, many other issues have also had some effect on oil prices. Labor strikes, hurricane threats to oil platforms, fires and terrorist threats at refineries, and other short-lived problems are not solely responsible for the higher prices. Such problems do push prices higher temporarily, but have not historically been fundamental to long-term price increases.clarify
History
2003
The U.S.-led 2003 invasion of Iraq was a significant event for oil markets because of Iraq's large oil reserves. The price of oil rose in the months running up to the invasion in March. Prices dropped in mid-2003, and several observers attributed this to the perception that the armed conflict would come to a quick resolution. The conflict coincided with an increase in global demand for petroleum, but it also reduced Iraq's current oil production, and has commonly been blamed in part for oil price increases since.[60] However, peakniksclarify such as Matthew Simmons tend to emphasize the simultaneous peaking and decline of many present or former oil-exporting countriesclarify around the world, such as Mexico, Indonesia, and the United Kingdom for the overall upward price trend of oil, contending that the combination of relentlessly rising global demand and peaking or eventually declining supply means the price must eventually go up. According to Simmons,[61] isolated events such as the Iraq war affect short-term prices but by themselves do not determine the long-term trend. Simmons cites the use of enhanced oil recovery techniques in large fields such as Mexico's Cantarell,[61] which maintained production for a few years, but only made the eventual decline all the more drastic. Pumping oil out of Iraq faster may reduce petroleum prices in the short term, but cannot keep the price low forever. From Simmons' point of view, then, the invasion of Iraq happened to be a major event that we can associate with the start of the long-term oil price rise, but at most this merely shifted the schedule ahead a few years, and may actually mitigate the inevitable decline in oil production by keeping some of Iraq's oil in reserve.
2004
As a direct consequence of the Iraq War that followed the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the oil production capacity of Iraq was cut from more than three to two million barrels per day.[62]
Mid-2005 increase
Overnight gasoline price hike shown at a United States Chicago area BP station (background) on August 12, 2005. The Shell station (foreground) had not yet posted the 12 U.S. cent price increase.
After retreating for several months in late 2004 and early 2005, crude oil prices rose to new highs in March 2005. The price on NYMEX has been above $50 per barrel since March 5, 2005. On March 16, 2005, the price surpassed the October 2004 high of $55.17 to close at $56.46. In April 2005 the price began to fall, reaching $53.32 on April 9. It then reversed course and headed to an all time high of $58.28, driven mainly by lingering concerns of a prolonged weak dollar.citation needed In June 2005, crude oil prices broke the psychological barrier of $60.
2005–2006 increases
In the United States gasoline prices reached a record high during the first week of September 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. The average retail price was nearly $3.04 per U.S. gallon.[63] The previous high was $1.42 per gallon in March 1981, which would be $3.20 per U.S. gallon after adjustment for inflation. In comparison, the average retail price of a litre of petrol in the United Kingdom was 86.4p on October 19, 2006.[64] This equates to USD 6.13 per U.S. gallon.
On January 17, 2006 crude oil for February delivery rose by USD 2.38 (3.7%) to USD 66.30 a barrel. This was the highest increase since early October 2005. Observers believe that violence in Nigeria, and the increasing tension between USA and Iran are responsible for this price increase. Continued tension between Iran and USA raised the price to $68.38 on January 31.[65] However, due to rising stockpiles of crude oil and an abnormally warm northern winter, on February 14 the price of crude hit a 2006 low of $59.60.[66]
Oil production in Iraq continued to decline as result of the ongoing conflict, decreasing to an output of just 1 million barrels per day (160,000 m³/d).[67]
"[The Iraq production shortfall is] a significant contributing factor to the high price of oil,"
– Dalton Garis, economist at the Petroleum Institute in Abu Dhabi[67]
Mid-2006 increase
Regular gasoline prices were averaging USD3.036 per U.S. gallon across the U.S. in August, 2006, slightly below the post-Katrina peak of USD 3.057.[68] Adjusted for inflation, these U.S. prices were the highest in 25 years. The all-time U.S. inflation-adjusted record is approximately $3.20 per U.S. gallon, set in March 1981.[69]
In July 2006, crude oil for August delivery traded over USD 79 per barrel (bbl),[70] an all-time record. The mid-2006 runup is attributable to increasing gasoline consumption, up 1.9% year over year in the U.S., and geopolitical tensions as North Korea launched missiles, the tension between Iran and USA drags on, and Israel and Lebanon went to war. The early 2006 runup in prices has been attributed to a number of factors, including continuing supply disruptions from the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season (18% of Gulf Coast supplies were still off-line in early 2006),citation needed supply disruptions from the changeover from MTBE to ethanol, lingering concerns over Iran and Nigeria, and anticipation of higher summer demand in the Northern Hemisphere. Hostilities in Nigeria alone have caused a supply disruption of 675,000 bbl per day.[71] On August 7, BP shut down its Prudhoe Bay, Alaska field due to pipeline corrosion, bringing supply down by up to 400,000 bbl/day or about 8% of total U.S. production.[72]
The higher price of oil substantially cut growth of world oil demand in 2006, including an outright reduction in the oil demand of the OECD.[73]
September 2006 decreases
Oil prices began to decrease during September 2006, closing below $66/barrel on September 11.[74] The U.S. national average gas price dropped to $2.70/gallon in early September, down 0.11 from the previous week. Some cities were seeing average prices below US$2.40/gallon.[75]
In September, prices continued to fall, and the average cost of gasoline per gallon (U.S. nationwide) was below US$2.50. On September 19, crude oil fell $2.14 to a 6 month low of $61.66. The recent significant fall in the price of crude oil has led some to speculate that price of gasoline may fall to as low as $1.15/gallon.[76] By October 3, the price closed at $58.68, its lowest close since mid-February.[77] Reasons for the recent price decreases have included easing tensions with Iran, ample supply, and the lack of hurricane activity in oil-producing regions of the Gulf of Mexico.citation needed
After news of North Korea's successful nuclear test on October 9, 2006, oil prices rose past $60 a barrel, but fell back the next day. Also, for several days in early October, oil prices bounced around the $60 mark on possible news that some OPEC countries would cut oil production by 1 million barrels per day (160,000 m³/d). OPEC had not cut its production since December 2004. However, the oil market has lately seemed to shrug that news off, especially considering that Saudi Arabia said that no such agreement exists (to cut production).
On October 11, oil prices fell below $58 for the first time since February. Days later, on October 20, a barrel of crude oil closed at $56.82 per barrel. The same day, OPEC declared that they would cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day (190,000 m³/d) in order to arrest the sliding price, the first drop since December 2004.[78]
GSCI reweighting
In early August, the weighting of gasoline futures in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index was significantly reduced, causing investors who were long oil to sell.[79] The extent to which the price deceases of late 2006 can be attributed to the reweighting is disputed. [80]
Mid-2007 increases
The U.S. national average on May 16, 2007 was $3.09, and some parts of the West Coast were selling regular unleaded at $3.33/gallon (e.g. San Francisco and Los Angeles). On NYMEX, a barrel was trading at $73.93, based on civil unrest in Nigeria. A pipeline disruption in the North Sea has also bumped the price of Brent Crude up to $79.64 (an all time high).[81]
Legislation from the U.S. Congress, from approving the No Oil Production and Exporting Cartels Act of 2007 (in which the Sherman Act is amended towards foreign companies acting as cartels), and hearings in May 2007 from the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee will address the following: price gouging (especially from oil companies) as a federal crime, and the intervention of the Joint Economic Committee led by Senator Chuck Schumer to which lawmakers should intervene where the current corporate mergers (ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, Shell) should break up, as a way to protect American consumers.
The "NOPEC" bill passed the U.S. House of Representatives with a 345-72 vote on May 22, 2007.
On September 12, 2007 oil prices rose to an all-time high of $80 per barrel, which surpassed even the highs of the early 1980s. High prices and restricted supplies have increased the concerns of those who believe that peak oil is either imminent, or may have already passed, because of the implication that oil supplies will not increase significantly beyond that point, and in the longer term a decline will occur. It should be remembered that some of this trend in prices is partly due to the slide of the dollar against other currencies. Measured in Euro for example, as the dollar has been falling steadily, the price of oil appears much less volatile. This results in worldwide price gains being relatively mild, but as the dollar loses its value against the euro, oil prices in the United States rise because they are priced in dollars.
Late 2007 increases
On October 19, 2007, U.S. light crude rose to a new height of $90.02 per barrel due to a combination of ongoing tensions in eastern Turkey and the reducing strength of the U.S. dollar.[82] Prices fell briefly on the expectation of increased U.S. crude oil stocks, however they rose again rapidly to a peak of $92.22 on October 26, 2007 when stocks were revealed to have instead fallen.[83]
Prices increased throughout late October and early November. On November 7, 2007 light crude oil reached another record, closing at $98.10 per barrel. On November 21, 2007, oil prices rose to a new high of $99.29 per barrel,[84] leading to fears of the price breaking the $100 per barrel mark due to a Wall Street Journal report which stated that peak oil had arrived.
Early 2008 increases
On January 2, 2008, U.S. light crude surpassed the psychological barrier of $100 before falling to $99.69, due to tensions on New Years Day in Nigeria and on suspicion that U.S. stocks of crude will have dropped for the seventh consecutive week. A BBC report from the following day stated that a single trader bid up the price. Stephen Schork, a former floor trader on the New York Mercantile Exchange and the editor of an oil market newsletter, said one floor trader bought 1,000 barrels (160 m³), the smallest amount permitted, and sold it immediately for $99.40 at a $600 loss. However, on January 3, oil rose to $100.05 a barrel in intraday trading.[85] Oil fell back later in the week to $97.91 at the close of trading on Friday, January 4, in part due to a weak jobs report that showed unemployment had risen.[86]
Despite news on weakened demand, the price of oil once again rose to $100.10 a barrel on February 19th after a Texas refinery fire, rumors about OPEC production cuts, and evidence that the supply of oil is decreasing faster than demand of oil. Oil prices rose above $101 a barrel February 27, 2008.[87] Oil prices surpassed $103 a barrel February 29, 2008 as continued weakness in the U.S. dollar and the prospect of lower Federal funds rates attracted fresh capital to the oil market.[88]
Oil prices continued to rise to $104 on March 3, 2008 continued by the weakness in the United States dollar.citation needed The OPEC on March 5, 2008 accused the United States of economic "mismanagement" that it said is pushing oil prices to record highs, rebuffing calls to boost output and laying blame at the feet of the George W. Bush administration.[89] Oil prices surged above $110 to a new inflation-adjusted record on March 12, 2008 before settling at $109.92.[90] Oil continued its soar skywards, hit $111 a barrel, on March 13, 2008, before sliding back to below $110 amid fears of economic recession in the United States.[91] The record was again broken on March 17, 2008, with U.S. light sweet crude reaching $111.80.[92] On April 15, 2008 the price of oil broke the $114 mark for the first time. The price increased to $115.07/barrel on April 16, 2008 due to the increasing weakness of the U.S. dollar,[93] and increased again to $117 per barrel on April 18, 2008 after a militant group in Nigeria said it had attacked an oil pipeline.[94] Oil prices rose to a new high of $119.90 a barrel on April 22, 2008,[95] before dipping and then rising $3 on April 25, 2008 to $119.10 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after a news report that a ship contracted by the U.S Military Sealift Command fired at an Iranian boat.[96]
Mid-2008 increases
On May 9, 2008, the oil price exceeded $125 per barrel for the first time,[97] while on May 21, 2008 the oil price exceeded already $130 per barrel of Brent Crude. In approximately 24 hours from May 21 to May 22nd, 2008, the price per barrel of oil passed $135.
On June 6, prices rose $11 in 24 hours, the largest gain in history.[98] The possibility of an attack on Iran by Israel was considered to have contributed to the rise.[99] The combination of two major oil suppliers reducing supply has generated fears of a repeat of the 1973 oil crisis. The mid-July decision of the Saudi kingdom to increase oil output has caused no significant influence on prices, but the caused the Iranian government misgivings. According to the oil minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran Gholam-Hossein Nozari the world markets are saturated[100] and that a Saudi promise of increased production would not lower prices.[101] Several Asian refineries were refusing Saudi petroleum in late June as over priced and of the wrong grade.[102]
Oil prices on June 28, hit record of $142.99 at 1:58 p.m., the highest since 1983 and to $142.97, the highest intraday price since 1988, owing to a weak dollar, geopolitical unrest and global equities slump.[103][104][105] Oil rose on July 1 to a NYME record $143.67 and a London's ICE Futures Europe exchange record $143.91.[106][107]
On July 3, "the Brent North Sea crude contract for August delivery rose to $US145.01 a barrel" in Asian trade.[108] London Brent crude reached a record of $145.75 a barrel, and Brent crude for August delivery peaked to a record $145.11 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, and to $144.44 a barrel on the NYMExchange.[109][110] By midday in Europe, light, sweet crude for August rose to a record $145.85 a barrel on the NYME while Brent crude futures rose to a trading record of $146.69 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.[111][112] On July 11, Oil hit another record of $147.00 a barrel, after a $10.00 decline in oil before.[113]
July 2008 decreases
On July 15, a selloff began after remarks by Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke which indicated significant demand destruction within the US because of the high prices. Within hours of his statements, an $8 drop had occurred, the biggest since the first US-Iraq war.[114][115] By the end of the week, crude oil had fallen by 11% to $128, also affected by an apparent easing of tensions between the US and Iran.[116]
Forecasted prices and trends
Fatih Birol, chief economist of the International Energy Agency expressed his opinion in October, 2007 that oil prices will remain high for the foreseeable future due to rapid increases in demand from the huge developing economies of China and India. Although India has raised prices, China has "no plans" to do so.[117] According to informed observers, OPEC, meeting in early December, 2007, seemed to desire a high but stable price that would deliver substantial needed income to the oil producing states, but avoid prices so high that they would negatively impact the economies of the oil consuming nations. A range of 70–80 dollars a barrel was suggested by some analysts to be OPEC's goal.[118]
Some analysts point out that major oil exporting countries are rapidly developing; and because they are using more oil domestically, less oil may be available on the international market. This effect, outlined in the export land economic model, could significantly reduce the oil available for trade and cause prices to continue to rise. Particularly significant are Indonesia (which is now a net importer of oil), Mexico and Iran (where demand is projected to exceed production in about 5 years), and Russia (whose domestic petroleum demand is growing rapidly).[119]
In May 2008, Barclays Capital raised its forecast for average crude oil price in 2008 from its previous prediction of $100.80/bbl to $116.90/bbl, citing the only modest decreases in oil consumption among OECD countries, strong demand growth among non-OECD countries, the slow development of alternative fuels, and weak non-OPEC supply which "continues to under-perform dramatically relative to consensus expectations."[120]
Also in May 2008, Arjun N. Murti and other Goldman Sachs analysts issued a research report predicting oil prices are likely to rise to between $150 to $200/bbl in the next six to 24 months.[121] This was a marked increase from Goldman Sachs' earlier (September, 2007) forecast of oil prices averaging $85/bbl through 2008, rising to $95/bbl at year end, which was in turn an increase from still-earlier predictions.[122]
Also in May 2008, T. Boone Pickens, the influential oil investor who believes the world’s oil output is about to peak, warned oil prices would hit $150 a barrel by the end of the year. “Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87m,” Mr Pickens said in an interview with CNBC. “It’s just that simple.”[123]
In June 2008, Alexei Miller, head of Russian energy giant Gazprom, warned that the price of oil is likely to hit $250 a barrel sometime in 2009. Miller said that while speculation had played a role in oil prices, "this influence was not decisive."[124] Bloomberg reported that, as of mid-June, "At least 3,008 options contracts have been purchased giving holders the right to buy oil at $250 a barrel in December".[125]
Also in June 2008, Shukri Ghanem, head of Libya's National Oil Corporation, said: "I think it [the oil price] will go higher. That is a trend that will continue for some time. The easy, cheap oil is over, peak oil is looming."[126]
On June 26, 2008, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said in an interview: "I forecast prices probably between $150-170 during this summer. That will perhaps ease towards the end of the year."[127] Iran's OPEC governor Mohammad-Ali Khatibi predicts that the price of oil would reach $150 a barrel by the end of this summer.[128]
Near-term peak oil proponent Matthew Simmons predicts a rise to $300 a barrel or higher by 2013 as sweet crude petroleum becomes more scarce and major producers begin failing to meet demand.[129]
Effects
Rising oil prices are not directly proportional to increases in gasoline prices at the pump. For example, while crude oil prices increased 400% from 2003–2008, United States gasoline prices did not rise by the same factor. This is because the profits of distributors and retailers, production costs (such as refining, transportation), and taxes are all part of the price of auto fuel. However, as the cost of crude oil increases, the crude-oil cost becomes a relatively larger component of the retail price of gasoline, causing any further increases in crude oil prices to have correspondingly larger impact on consumers.
There is debate over the effect the current long term elevation of oil prices will have. Some speculate that an oil-price spike could create a recession comparable to those that followed the 1973 and 1979 energy crises or a potentially worse situation such as a global oil crash.
In any case, costs are reflected in nearly everything one can buy.[130]
Political scientist George Friedman has postulated that if high prices for oil and food persist, they will define the fourth distinct geopolitical regime since the end of World War II, the previous three being the Cold War, the 1989-2001 period in which economic globalization was primary, and the post-9/11 war on terror.[131]
Inflation and recession
- Further information: Oil crisis and Recession of 2008
The perceived increase in oil price differs internationally according to currency market fluctuations and purchasing power of currencies. For example, excluding changes in relative purchasing power of various currencies, from 2002-01-01 to 2008-01-01:[132]
- In US$, oil price rose from $20.37 to nearly $100, about 4.91 times more expensive;
- In the same period, the Taiwanese dollar gained value over the U.S. dollar to make oil in Taiwan 4.53 times more expensive;
- In the same period, the Japanese Yen gained value over the U.S. dollar to make oil in Japan 4.10 times more expensive;
- In the same period, the Euro gained value over the U.S. dollar to make oil in the Eurozone 2.94 times more expensive.
On average, oil price has increased approximately 400% for these areas. Because of this protests are appearing.[133][134]
Rising transport costs may start to reverse globalization, due to the fact that distance will cost more and more money. As oil prices keep rising, transport costs could cancel out lower wage advantages, such as in East Asia.[135]
United States
Three-year performance of the oil industry...
...and one-month performance.
It is easiest to gauge the effects of oil prices in the United states, where comparison of oil prices to average income are simplified. One of the most closely watched measures is the price of gas,[136] but the average United States consumer's basket of goods contains many other petroleum products as well.
Despite the rapid increase in the price of oil, neither the stock markets nor the growth of the global economy were noticeably affected until supply declined rapidly starting in November 2007. Arguably, inflation has increased; in the United States, inflation averaged 3.3% in 2005–2006, as compared to an average of 2.5% in the preceding 10-year period.[137] As a result, during this period the Federal Reserve has consistently increased interest rates to curb inflation.
Exactly how much trade, soaring transport costs divert from China (or for that matter anywhere else) depend ultimately on how important those costs are in total costs. Goods that have a high value to freight ratio carry implicitly small transport costs, while goods with low value to freight ratios typically carry significant moving costs. A high percentage of Chinese exports to the U.S. fall in the latter category. Furniture, apparel, footwear, metal manufacturing, and industrial machinery—all typical Chinese exports, incur relatively high transport costs.[138]
Soaring costs are squeezing gas station owners too.[139]
In 2008, a report by Cambridge Energy Research Associates stated that 2007 had been the year of peak gasoline usage in the United States, and that record energy levels would cause an "enduring shift" in energy consumption practices.[140] According to the report, in April gas consumption had been lower than a year before for the sixth straight month, suggesting 2008 would be the first year U.S. gasoline usage declined in 17 years. The total miles driven in the U.S. began declining in 2006.[141]
United States and GDP
In the United States, for instance, each 1000 dollars in GDP required 2.4 barrels of oil in 1973 when adjusted for inflation, while this number had fallen to 1.15 by 2001.[142] For calendar 1981, United States oil consumption was 5,861,058,000 bbl (0.9318338 km³)[143] and GDP was $5,291.7 billion[144] (chain-volume 2000 dollars), a ratio of $902.86/bbl. In 2005, consumption was 7,539,370,000 bl and GDP was $11,048.6 billion, a ratio of $1,465.45/bbl.
Many of the energy intensive industrial and manufacturing activities present in the 1970s U.S. moved out of the country during a period of outsourcing. Manufacturing as a portion of U.S. GDP has declined considerably since 1973.[145] While the United States no longer makes as many goods and therefor does not expend as much energy to do so higher energy prices are still impacting the cost to manufacture these goods overseas. The increased cost impacts the U.S. GDP via the trade deficit. The size of this impact is difficult to estimate though the total energy/GDP effect should be commensurate with the 1970s value compensated by any efficiency gains from the outsourcing itself and the increased transportation costs.
United States stock market
The increase in oil prices over two years was mirrored by an increase in stock values in the energy sector. Energy ETFs like XLE (an overall energy sector fund) and OIH (an oil service industry fund) did well during the period, with XLE's price increasing from $26 (2004-01-01) to $54 (2006-03-02), and OIH's price increasing from $60 (2004-01-01) to $143 (2006-03-02).
The value of the stock in companies such as Apache[146] and Conoco-Phillips[147] rose sharply during this period. These prices increased more rapidly toward the end of August, particularly after Hurricane Katrina.[148]
Wal-Mart shares continued their decrease in value that began with the increase in the oil prices. Over two years, stock in Wal-Mart dropped in value by 25% from $60 per share to under $45 per share.[149] Earlier in August, Wal-Mart announced that higher than expected oil prices cut into the corporation's profits for the 2nd quarter of 2005. Since oil prices after the end of the 2nd quarter continued to rise, 3rd quarter profits from Wal-Mart are expected to be small. Because Wal-Mart's distribution system relies on the customer to drive to a large discount big-box store, increases in the price of fuel might discourage some customers from making the trip as often. Wal-Mart, like all retailers, will also face higher shipping costs to get goods from the factory to the stores. This will likely cause inflationary pressures. Nevertheless, Wal-Mart's sales actually increased as a result as disposable income decreased due to the increased price of gasoline.
Europe
In the developed countries of Western and Central Europe, the prices of transport fuels are made up of the price of the refined product, plus a substantial tax element, which can vary between roughly 2/3 and 3/4 of the total price. (in the UK nearly 70% of the price of a litre of petrol is made up of fuel duty and VAT. A doubling of the oil price would add perhaps 30% to the cost of fuel at the pump in the UK, if the duty was not changed.) These taxes are not harmonised, nor are different countries' budgets updated at the same time. As a consequence, people who live nearby will often find it worthwhile to drive over the border to fill up, despite the hassle and traffic congestion this causes. However, in general, by having a large tax fraction, governments have the benefit of some room for manoeuvre, to smooth sudden price shocks by relaxing and then slowly ramping back the fuel duties, and the population has lifestyles that are already well adapted to fuel prices that would appear very high to consumers in the USA (where the tax fraction is less than 20%). These two effects conspire to make European demand largely independent of the crude oil price, at least over short periods of a few years.
Asia Pacific region
The Pacific rim had been experiencing oil shortages on an ongoing basis prior to Hurricane Katrina. Some countries are increasing production of biofuels to offset the higher costs of oil.citation needed
In July 2008, Malaysia experienced protests against high fuel prices.[150]
In Indonesia, fuel subsidies grew to encompass "almost one third of the state budget".[151]
On July 15 2008, Japanese fishermen for the first time began a protest strike over the high cost of boat fuel (which had tripled over a three year period). The high fuel costs have been compounded by higher domestic meat consumption, lower priced foreign competitors, and the cumulative effects of overfishing. During the strike around virtually the entire Japanese fishing fleet of 200,000 boats sat idle. This follows strikes by truck and taxi drivers, as well as other fishermen, in Asia, Europe and the U.S.[152] Between 2006 and 2008, the number of fishermen in Japan dropped by as much as 20% and the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries projects this number to grow.citation needed
Developing countries
High oil prices are likely to first affect less affluent countries, particularly the developing world, with less discretionary income. There are fewer vehicles per capita, and oil is often used for electricity generation, as well as private transport. The World Bank has looked more deeply at the effect of oil prices in the developing countries. An analysis finds that in South Africa a 125 percent increase in the price of crude oil and refined petroleum reduces employment and GDP by approximately 2 percent, and reduces household consumption by approximately 7 percent, affecting mainly the poor.[153]
Sub-Saharan Africa
High oil prices are hurting many countries in Africa, including Zimbabwe, Eritrea and Tanzania. High oil prices have created an oil supply instability, per barrel price instability or both. There are reports that this has led to fuel rationing being enacted in some cases.[154] Many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa lack the foreign exchange reserves to purchase enough oil products at increasingly higher prices. These nations have little choice but to limit imports and/or ration their existing supplies.
Latin America and Caribbean
Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, came under increasing scrutiny as he began selling heating oil at lower-than-market prices to poor U.S. consumers and to island nations in the Caribbean such as Cuba.[155]dead links
Persian Gulf States and Eurasian Arab-Islamic regions
Some stock markets in the GCC, notably in Saudi Arabia and Dubai, experienced a boom, roughly 100% index increase in the Saudi stock market.[156] However, this boom was followed by a market crash. A number of planned projects to stir development, such as King Abdullah Economic City, have been proposed due to $29.3 billion surplus.[157] On May 1, 2006 Saudi Arabia lowered prices on all hydrocarbon fuels for local consumption; 95 octane gasoline costs .606 USD/gallon (fixed price).[158]
An EIA report stated that OPEC member nations were projected to earn a net amount of $1.251 trillion in 2008 from their oil exports, due to the record crude prices.[159]
Transportation
Ground transport
Prior to the runup in fuel prices, many motorists opted for larger, less fuel-efficient sport utility vehicles and full-size vehicles in the United States, Canada and other countries where fuel taxes have historically been low. This trend began reversing in 2008 due to rising prices of fuel along with an increasing perception that future fuel prices will be at least as high. At the same time, appraisal and depreciation rates for SUVs, trucks, and vans have increased 30% and current SUV, truck, and van owners who cannot liquidate their gas-guzzlers because of low resale values are donating their vehicles for tax credits; this trend occurred during the 1973 oil crisis where musclecars and luxury cars faced the same predicament.
The September 2005 sales data for all the vehicle vendors indicated SUV sales dropped while small cars sales increased compared with 2004 sales. There is also an ever increasing market for hybrid vehicles (e.g., Toyota Prius and Honda Civic Hybrid) and diesel engine vehicles (e.g., Volkswagen TDI and Mercedes-Benz E320 CDI) since they are more fuel efficient; since the 1973 energy crisis, the front-wheel drive passenger car has replaced rear-wheel drive as the preferred layout for energy efficient cars. There is increasing demand of "crossover SUVs" (i.e., SUVs based on unibody platforms) which are marginally lighter and therefore more fuel efficient than SUVs built on body-on-frame chassis.
The Union Pacific Railroad has had to address with its rising fuel bill, which has reached the point of becoming its single biggest operating expense. [160] Airlines and oveseas shipping companies are also struggling to contain costs as their energy expense soar.
Anecdotal evidence suggested that in mid-2008, rising fuel prices motivated an increasing number of drivers to adopt fuel economy maximizing behaviors.[161]
In July 2008, millions of Indian truck drivers joined a series of protests in Asia and Europe after crude oil's record run forced governments and fuel retailers to cut subsidies and raise prices.[162][163][164]
Air travel
- Further information: History of aviation#The challenge of peak oil
Although Peak oil theorists such as David Goodstein, Richard Heinberg, and others, had for years predicted sharp declines in air travel following the peaking of world oil production and its subsequent decline,[165] air travel enjoyed robust growth around much of the world spurred by low jet fuel costs starting in the mid-1980s. For example, air travel in the United States grew five times faster than population in the decades after 1978, with 769 million passengers boarding U.S. airline flights in 2007.[166] However, the run-up in oil prices after 2003 began eroding airline profits, and the further doubling of oil prices from May 2007 to May 2008 began to have a substantial impact on airline operations, forcing airlines to reduce flight schedules, and pushing weaker carriers into merger or bankruptcy.[166][167][168] During the first half of 2008, at least tweinty-five airlines world-wide entered bankruptcy or were forced to cease operations.[169]
April 2008 began with four small airlines (Aloha Airlines, Champion Air, ATA Airlines and Skybus Airlines) ceasing operations in a period of a week.citation needed A fifth airline, Oasis Hong Kong Airlines ceased operations on April 9, 2008.citation needed A sixth airline, Frontier Airlines filed for bankruptcy on April 11, 2008 to protect itself from its credit card processing company which was withholding airline ticket revenues. Frontier continues to operate under Chapter 11 and is working to get a new agreement with said company.citation needed Eos Airlines, a small sp |
