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Next Australian federal election
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The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia and must be held on or before 16 April 2011. The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the current Parliament. Australia has compulsory voting, uses full-preference instant-runoff voting in the lower house and single transferable vote group voting tickets in the upper house. The election will be conducted by the Australian Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.
Date
The last federal election was held on 24 November 2007. The last date on which the next election can be held is calculated in the following way:[3]
- Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[4]
- Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."
- Section 156 (1) of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ". [5]
- Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination". [6]
- Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday". [7]
The first meeting of the House of Representatives and the 42nd Parliament occurred on 12 February 2008.[8][9] Therefore it expires on 11 February 2011, unless dissolved sooner. (Note that, of Australia's 41 completed parliaments, only one, the 3rd Parliament 1907-1910, continued for the full three years, all others having been dissolved earlier.[10]) The writs must therefore be issued by 21 February 2011 (ten days after the expiry). The last date on which nominations can close is therefore 20 March 2011 (27 days after the writs). The last day that is no more than 31 days following the close of nominations, and is a Saturday, is 16 April 2011.
A Senate election must be held in time for state senators to take their places on 1 July 2011. It will probably be held in conjunction with the House of Representatives election. In this event, half (36) of the 72 state senators, and all 4 of the territory senators, will face election (territory senators begin their terms immediately). There are precedents for holding a separate Senate election, but the last time this occurred was 1970. If this were to occur, however, the only senators to face election would be the 36 state senators referred to above. The writs for a "half-Senate" election cannot be issued until one year before the end of the current term. The current term ends on 30 June 2011; one year before then is 30 June 2010; and thus the earliest possible such election would be in August 2010.
It is also possible that a double dissolution election could be called if legislation cannot proceed through the Senate after two attempts. A double dissolution may only occur on or before 11 August 2010:
- Section 57 of the Constitution says: "If the House of Representatives passes any proposed law, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, and if after an interval of three months the House of Representatives, in the same or the next session, again passes the proposed law with or without any amendments which have been made, suggested, or agreed to by the Senate, and the Senate rejects or fails to pass it, or passes it with amendments to which the House of Representatives will not agree, the Governor-General may dissolve the Senate and the House of Representatives simultaneously. But such dissolution shall not take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives by effluxion of time".
The psephologist Malcolm Mackerras is "convinced" a double dissolution will occur.[11] Commentators such as David Barnett from the Canberra Times predict the election will be called in two years' time rather than three, and will be based upon the Howard government's record.[12]
The next New South Wales state election is due on 26 March 2011[13] and this may make a 2011 federal election undesirable.
House of Representatives
- See also: 2007 state-by-state lower house results and maps
- See also: Post-2007 election pendulum
The Labor Party, currently led by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, and the Liberal Party, currently led by Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, are the two main parties in Australia. The Liberal Party is usually in a coalition with the smaller National Party, currently led by Warren Truss. In the 150-member Australian House of Representatives, Labor governs with 83 seats, the coalition is in opposition with 65 seats (55 Liberal and 10 National), and two seats are held by independents. The Australian Greens won 8 per cent of the 2007 vote, and the Family First Party won 2 per cent, but neither party won any seats in the lower house.
The Gippsland by-election took place on June 28, 2008 to fill the casual vacancy caused by the resignation in April of the former Howard minister and Nationals MP Peter McGauran. Nationals candidate Darren Chester won the by-election with a 6% swing from the 2007 result.
Senate
- See also: 2007 state-by-state upper house results
In the 76-member Australian Senate, from July 2008, the coalition will hold 37 seats while Labor will hold 32 seats. The balance of power will rest with the crossbench, made up by the five Australian Greens, Family First's Steve Fielding, and one independent, Nick Xenophon.
Legislation requires the support of a majority (39) of the 76 senators. Labor will be able to pass legislation if it has the support of all seven crossbench senators, regardless of how coalition senators may vote. If some or all coalition senators vote for government legislation, support from all of the crossbench will not be required.
Independent Nick Xenophon, although reported as left-of-centre,[14] has indicated his plans to work closely with Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce, who is known for being a highly independent member of his party, having crossed the floor 19 times under the Howard coalition government.[15]
State Senators facing re-election
[16]
Polling
Newspoll polling is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas, Friday to Sunday, usually each fortnight. Sampling sizes consist of around 1100 electors. The margin of error is around ±3.5 percent.
Better PM opinion polling
| Date |
Labor
Rudd |
Liberal
Nelson |
| 11-13 Jul 2008 |
65% |
14% |
| 27-29 Jun 2008 |
64% |
15% |
| 13-15 Jun 2008 |
68% |
13% |
| 30 May-1 Jun 2008 |
66% |
17% |
| 16-18 May 2008 |
70% |
12% |
| 2-4 May 2008 |
72% |
9% |
| 18-20 Apr 2008 |
71% |
10% |
| 4-6 Apr 2008 |
73% |
9% |
| 14-16 Mar 2008 |
70% |
10% |
| 29 Feb-2 Mar 2008 |
73% |
7% |
| 15-17 Feb 2008 |
70% |
9% |
| 18-20 Jan 2008 |
68% |
11% |
| 30 Nov-2 Dec 2007 |
61% |
14% |
| 20-22 Nov 2007 |
47% |
44%* |
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
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House of Representatives opinion polling
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Political parties |
Two party preferred |
|
ALP |
Lib |
Nat |
Grn |
Oth |
ALP |
Lib |
| 11-13 Jul 2008 |
43% |
33% |
5% |
11% |
8% |
55% |
45% |
| 27-29 Jun 2008 |
44% |
34% |
5% |
10% |
7% |
55% |
45% |
| 13-15 Jun 2008 |
46% |
29% |
4% |
12% |
9% |
59% |
41% |
| 30 May-1 Jun 2008 |
46% |
33% |
4% |
10% |
7% |
57% |
43% |
| 16-18 May 2008 |
47% |
34% |
3% |
9% |
7% |
57% |
43% |
| 2-4 May 2008 |
47% |
33% |
4% |
9% |
7% |
57% |
43% |
| 18-20 Apr 2008 |
51% |
30% |
4% |
9% |
6% |
61% |
39% |
| 4-6 Apr 2008 |
48% |
32% |
3% |
10% |
7% |
59% |
41% |
| 14-16 Mar 2008 |
47% |
31% |
4% |
11% |
7% |
59% |
41% |
| 29 Feb-2 Mar 2008 |
51% |
28% |
3% |
10% |
8% |
63% |
37% |
| 15-17 Feb 2008 |
46% |
33% |
3% |
10% |
8% |
57% |
43% |
| 18-20 Jan 2008 |
46% |
32% |
3% |
12% |
7% |
58% |
42% |
| 2007 Election |
43.4% |
36.6% |
5.5% |
7.8% |
6.7% |
52.7% |
47.3% |
| 20-22 Nov 2007 |
44% |
39% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
52% |
48% |
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian.
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See also
References
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